Winter Forecast 2011-2012

After several weeks of research the winter outlook is complete.  Due to work and school, I have not had as much time as I would have liked to have had to work on this forecast.  However, I am fairly confident in my forecast and think that this is how the winter should unfold.  I am excited to get this winter started and start publishing "short-term" forecasts for storms affecting our region.

I thank you for watching and hope you have a wonderful day! God bless you!

Wintry Weather Possible for the Foothills and Mountains Tomorrow Night

Last day of Warmth
A cold front will push through the region overnight and tomorrow and cause temperatures to plummet.  Highs tomorrow for many Piedmont areas will not reach the low 50's.  Lows Friday night will be a little warmer as the clouds will act as a blanket to us.  However, our first sub-freezing temperature of the year is likely to occur Saturday Night.

Snow Chances for Tomorrow Night
I figured I would let you know that some forecast models are indicating the chance at some wintry precip. in a few NC counties.  It looks like the snow would mix in sometime tomorrow evening and tomorrow night if it does indeed happen.  The counties that have the best chance at this novelty are Ashe, Watauga, Alleghany, Surry, Wilkes, and Yadkin.  This is the first time this season that wintry weather has threatened areas outside the mountains and remember, it is only the 27th of October.  There are many more weeks of wintry fun ahead.

Winter Forecast
I am currently working on my winter forecast and should have it ready by Friday afternoon.  My analog years for this forecast are 50-51, 55-56, 71-72, 74-75, 75-76, 82-83, 99-00, 00-01, and 08-09.

Interesting to See This Early in the Season

Taken verbatim this particular run(18z GFS) puts down 2-5" of snow in Western NC. Not going to happen, but interesting to see.

Winter Is Over...Not So Fast!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kx4qoJ7tRgA

My Gut Tells Me Otherwise....

I'm hesitant to type this, because I more than likely will get burned with this forecast. My gut has been telling me since Sunday that this was going to be a little bigger than expected. I've not had too much time to analyze data and track radar this morning, but what I did notice is that, from what I saw, this storm is tracking a little farther North that expected and is a tad bit stronger. We'll see. I'll try to do an afternoon post, but until then...Have a great day and God Bless You!!

Thursday Snow?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEuvYvybVnQ

Update on This Upcoming Week's Snow Potential

I'll try to cut a video Monday morning if hope is still alive for the storm. Cross your fingers. Typical of this time period, GFS has backed off the snow potential considerably. It still has snow, but very light. The Euro has hopped on board with the wintry scenario with the 12z run and 00z run. The past runs of the Euro have trended eastward towards the original GFS solution. That's good. Let's hope the trend holds. I've said countless times this winter that the GFS is the model of choice from 6-14 days, then the Euro from 2-5 days, and then it's kind of wait and see with all the models. Hopefully, we'll have better agreement between the models by early next week. However, with this winter's track record, it's likely that we don't see agreement until Tuesday night or Wednesday. I want to note that all models (GFS, Euro, and Canadian) point to some light snow Monday night. Looks to be only a dusting, if that, but it's something to keep an eye on. Long-lead indicators point to a warm-up after Valentine's Day, so this may be our last chance at wintry precip. this winter, unless something pops up late month or early march.

Updates throughout the week. Thanks for reading, have a good day, and God Bless You!!

Next Week....

Just updating you to let you know that we may have to deal with some sort of wintry weather middle of next week. Also, it appears that cold will make a return for at least a couple days after that.

Thanks for viewing, have a good night, and God Bless!

Winter Taking a Break

I don't really have time to get into specifics, but I'm not liking the setup we're going into. Massive blizzard will move through the Central U.S. and then to the North East....wish I was there...anyways, I don't foresee any real threat for wintry precip. across the region for a while. Friday looks to me like a cold rain, yet again. I'm not going to say Winter's over, but we're entering February so we're starting to "warm-up." I'd look for the end of the month and early February for any "chances" at wintry precip. Then, I will not post on the blog until next December unless the urge to do so strikes. Why? Well, I'm not too into forecasting "Hot and humid with a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm" which is the norm here in the piedmont of NC. Oh, here's a perspective of how this winter has been....Atlantic Beach Winter Snowfall Totals~10.5" Statesville~9" Average for Atlantic Beach~2" Statesville~7"..Backwards? I'd say so :) At least we're both over our average.

Have a good evening and God Bless!

Video Later

I'll cut a video later today, but I just wanted to give you a heads up that, as of this morning, the potential is there for some wintry weather somewhere in the region early to mid next week. More details in the video....

Tracking a potential RAINSTORM for Tuesday into Wednesday!

Before I get started, let me remind you (and me) that we still have two days for changes. 
Models have trended to the warmer side of life over the past couple of runs. Canadian shows the low pressure tracking up through the western piedmont, which would guarantee us rain. I don't agree with this though. With a +PNA and NAO going negative I just don't see that happening. Euro lays down quite a bit of QPF, but keeps us mostly rain with 12z yesterday showing snow at the end. GFS, for the past 4 runs, has done "fairly" well. However, differing strengths and tracks did appear on each run, but hey it had the system. One thing that appeared on all the runs was surface temperatures and temperatures up aloft even too warm for snow. This is the GFS i'll remind you. My problem with the snow is that even if we do have the perfect tracking low, where is the cold air going to come from? The high in New England will have already departed so not too much CAD and evaporative cooling only helps to an extent. However, if we can get the heavy precip rates that are showing up on the Euro, I could see some parts switching over to snow and picking up a couple of inches. It's only Sunday morning, so lots will change, but I'm leaning towards the rainy side of life right now.
Have a Great day! Thanks for viewing and God Bless!

Next Week's Potential Winter Storm!

New Video....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTxHQwkn7I4

Back at it!

After a much needed break I am going to start back up the blog and try to update once or twice a day. 

As to next week's storm(s).....
For the first storm I am not quite ready to commit to the wintry setup indicated on most models. I am, however, inching closer and closer to it. Give me until tomorrow afternoon or so. I will say that it does look like we will see some areas around the region see some type of wintry precip for a time period. When, how much, and what type is yet to be determined. If I had to give an educated guess tonight, I would say that roughly from Areas along I-85 and NW~Snow mainly with a glaze of freezing rain and sleet sprinkles on top. SE of I-85~Snow at the onset switching over to freezing rain and sleet for several hours before ending as all rain. This is an early call and the forecast will need adjustments the closer we come to the storm.
The end of next week looks to offer some sort of wintry potential as well, but honestly I haven't spent much time looking at that one.

Long Term....
February looks to be yet another month of cooler than average temperatures. I will say that in no means do I think winter is over, but beware that some systems may track just far enough north to give us the dreaded cold rain. The PNA is going positive for the first time this winter and should/could lead to increased potential for wintry systems in the Southeast.

As always....Have a Great Night! Thanks for viewing and God Bless You!!

Not such a good day..

My dog has gone on to doggy heaven this morning and due to that I will not be putting up as many posts as normal throughout the storm. General thoughts are 2-5" right now.

Thanks for stopping by and God Bless You!

Update on Monday's Storm

A video...finally!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4yXpiifNEw

Winter Storm Potential on th Increase

Sorry no post or video this morning. Very impressed with the 00z runs last night. I am eager to see what the 12z holds. REMINDER: WE ARE STILL 3-4 DAYS OUT FROM THIS SYSTEM. THINGS CAN CHANGE.

Have a great day and God Bless You!

Update on Next Week's Storm with a Video!

Finally a video!!!....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ro2WxZM5j_M

Update on Next Week's Storm

I have officially jumped on the snow train. I think we are going to see wintry precipitation early next week.
AudioBoo... http://audioboo.fm/boos/249804-very-wintry-pattern-for-nc

Loaded Pattern...

AudioBoo...
http://audioboo.fm/boos/249445-next-3-systems-and-a-little-bit-of-longterm

3 Wintry Hits Ahead?

AudioBoo...
http://audioboo.fm/boos/249183-3-snow-chances-ahead

Question Marks as We Head Into Modnay's System

AudioBoo...
For some reason I said snow flurries tonight and tomorrow. That's false. It would be tomorrow night and Thursday. Sorry for the confusion.
http://audioboo.fm/boos/248798-update-on-the-snow-events-set-to-affect-our-region

Thanks for viewing and God Bless You!

Snowy Potential Ahead?!?!

First AudioBoo...

http://audioboo.fm/jtomlinwx

I'll hop back on to a normal post pattern starting tomorrow. Still recovering from the Christmas Storm and the break that followed! Really got me off course!

Thanks for viewing and God Bless You!