Before I get started, let me remind you (and me) that we still have two days for changes.
Models have trended to the warmer side of life over the past couple of runs. Canadian shows the low pressure tracking up through the western piedmont, which would guarantee us rain. I don't agree with this though. With a +PNA and NAO going negative I just don't see that happening. Euro lays down quite a bit of QPF, but keeps us mostly rain with 12z yesterday showing snow at the end. GFS, for the past 4 runs, has done "fairly" well. However, differing strengths and tracks did appear on each run, but hey it had the system. One thing that appeared on all the runs was surface temperatures and temperatures up aloft even too warm for snow. This is the GFS i'll remind you. My problem with the snow is that even if we do have the perfect tracking low, where is the cold air going to come from? The high in New England will have already departed so not too much CAD and evaporative cooling only helps to an extent. However, if we can get the heavy precip rates that are showing up on the Euro, I could see some parts switching over to snow and picking up a couple of inches. It's only Sunday morning, so lots will change, but I'm leaning towards the rainy side of life right now.
Have a Great day! Thanks for viewing and God Bless!
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