Winter Taking a Break

I don't really have time to get into specifics, but I'm not liking the setup we're going into. Massive blizzard will move through the Central U.S. and then to the North East....wish I was there...anyways, I don't foresee any real threat for wintry precip. across the region for a while. Friday looks to me like a cold rain, yet again. I'm not going to say Winter's over, but we're entering February so we're starting to "warm-up." I'd look for the end of the month and early February for any "chances" at wintry precip. Then, I will not post on the blog until next December unless the urge to do so strikes. Why? Well, I'm not too into forecasting "Hot and humid with a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm" which is the norm here in the piedmont of NC. Oh, here's a perspective of how this winter has been....Atlantic Beach Winter Snowfall Totals~10.5" Statesville~9" Average for Atlantic Beach~2" Statesville~7"..Backwards? I'd say so :) At least we're both over our average.

Have a good evening and God Bless!

Video Later

I'll cut a video later today, but I just wanted to give you a heads up that, as of this morning, the potential is there for some wintry weather somewhere in the region early to mid next week. More details in the video....

Tracking a potential RAINSTORM for Tuesday into Wednesday!

Before I get started, let me remind you (and me) that we still have two days for changes. 
Models have trended to the warmer side of life over the past couple of runs. Canadian shows the low pressure tracking up through the western piedmont, which would guarantee us rain. I don't agree with this though. With a +PNA and NAO going negative I just don't see that happening. Euro lays down quite a bit of QPF, but keeps us mostly rain with 12z yesterday showing snow at the end. GFS, for the past 4 runs, has done "fairly" well. However, differing strengths and tracks did appear on each run, but hey it had the system. One thing that appeared on all the runs was surface temperatures and temperatures up aloft even too warm for snow. This is the GFS i'll remind you. My problem with the snow is that even if we do have the perfect tracking low, where is the cold air going to come from? The high in New England will have already departed so not too much CAD and evaporative cooling only helps to an extent. However, if we can get the heavy precip rates that are showing up on the Euro, I could see some parts switching over to snow and picking up a couple of inches. It's only Sunday morning, so lots will change, but I'm leaning towards the rainy side of life right now.
Have a Great day! Thanks for viewing and God Bless!

Next Week's Potential Winter Storm!

New Video....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTxHQwkn7I4

Back at it!

After a much needed break I am going to start back up the blog and try to update once or twice a day. 

As to next week's storm(s).....
For the first storm I am not quite ready to commit to the wintry setup indicated on most models. I am, however, inching closer and closer to it. Give me until tomorrow afternoon or so. I will say that it does look like we will see some areas around the region see some type of wintry precip for a time period. When, how much, and what type is yet to be determined. If I had to give an educated guess tonight, I would say that roughly from Areas along I-85 and NW~Snow mainly with a glaze of freezing rain and sleet sprinkles on top. SE of I-85~Snow at the onset switching over to freezing rain and sleet for several hours before ending as all rain. This is an early call and the forecast will need adjustments the closer we come to the storm.
The end of next week looks to offer some sort of wintry potential as well, but honestly I haven't spent much time looking at that one.

Long Term....
February looks to be yet another month of cooler than average temperatures. I will say that in no means do I think winter is over, but beware that some systems may track just far enough north to give us the dreaded cold rain. The PNA is going positive for the first time this winter and should/could lead to increased potential for wintry systems in the Southeast.

As always....Have a Great Night! Thanks for viewing and God Bless You!!

Not such a good day..

My dog has gone on to doggy heaven this morning and due to that I will not be putting up as many posts as normal throughout the storm. General thoughts are 2-5" right now.

Thanks for stopping by and God Bless You!

Update on Monday's Storm

A video...finally!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4yXpiifNEw

Winter Storm Potential on th Increase

Sorry no post or video this morning. Very impressed with the 00z runs last night. I am eager to see what the 12z holds. REMINDER: WE ARE STILL 3-4 DAYS OUT FROM THIS SYSTEM. THINGS CAN CHANGE.

Have a great day and God Bless You!

Update on Next Week's Storm with a Video!

Finally a video!!!....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ro2WxZM5j_M

Update on Next Week's Storm

I have officially jumped on the snow train. I think we are going to see wintry precipitation early next week.
AudioBoo... http://audioboo.fm/boos/249804-very-wintry-pattern-for-nc

Loaded Pattern...

AudioBoo...
http://audioboo.fm/boos/249445-next-3-systems-and-a-little-bit-of-longterm

3 Wintry Hits Ahead?

AudioBoo...
http://audioboo.fm/boos/249183-3-snow-chances-ahead

Question Marks as We Head Into Modnay's System

AudioBoo...
For some reason I said snow flurries tonight and tomorrow. That's false. It would be tomorrow night and Thursday. Sorry for the confusion.
http://audioboo.fm/boos/248798-update-on-the-snow-events-set-to-affect-our-region

Thanks for viewing and God Bless You!

Snowy Potential Ahead?!?!

First AudioBoo...

http://audioboo.fm/jtomlinwx

I'll hop back on to a normal post pattern starting tomorrow. Still recovering from the Christmas Storm and the break that followed! Really got me off course!

Thanks for viewing and God Bless You!