Video Later..

I will be back in town later tonight and will cut a video then. Lots to talk about.

12z Euro...Will it?

That's from the 12z run of the Euro. Time would be next weekend. That would indicate a pretty sizeable wintry hit to the region. Will it verify?? Doubt it...we shall see.

Interesting Video...

http://www.accuweather.com/video/73146202001/why-the-globe-will-(is)-cool(i.asp

Icy Potential Ahead?

Still keeping my general thoughts posted Tuesday about January. After a short warm up this weekend, cooler air will return next week. GFS has been consistent on bringing in some moisture sometime around next weekend and the potential for some shallow cold air seeping in from the North is there. With the shallow layer of cold air there would be ice, not snow. It bears watching, but as we all know this far out the GFS isn't exactly the model of choice. However, the Euro has this system as well, just later on. More tomorrow...

Thanks for viewing and God Bless You!

Short Post Today...

Just wanted to go ahead and give y'all a heads up that I'm watching a system in the modeling that could potentially cause some icy troubles as we head into next weekend timeframe. More later on....

Long-range Thoughts....

I talked a little about the long-range in my video yesterday. I will say this, many Winter forecasts, including mine, may be in jeopardy. I, being a snow fan, hope that my outlook doesn't play out.

My forecast for December worked out pretty well. I forecast an active December with below average temperatures. That indeed did play out. Most of the Eastern half of the country experienced below average temperatures for December with the exception of Maine. We had four bouts with wintry weather here in Statesville, NC during December. Dates were the 4th, 12th, 16th, and 25th. We had a close call to our South and East on the 18th. That's what I call an active month. The monthly total of snowfall at my house was 8". That's well over our normal of 1"! Our average snowfall for a complete winter is around 7.5" so thanks to our Christmas Day storm we are already above normal in snowfall which makes my forecast for below avg. snowfall this winter a bust. Because of the die-hard snow fan I am, having that part of the forecast be a bust is absolutely fine with me. Here's a preliminary snowfall accumulation map from Christmas Day...

 

Now that we have December done with we look ahead to the rest of this Winter. Like I mentioned earlier in the post my forecast for an above average January and February may be in jeopardy. After this very short burst of warmer air moves through this weekend, the pattern will transition back to below average temperatures. The NAO will remain negative as we head into the first half of January and will be west-based which will aid in keeping us below normal. The AO tries to trend into the positive zone only to fall back by mid-month. Another interesting thing is that the PNA tries to remain neutral and even tries to jump into the positive region for the first half of January. That helps us to get bigger storm systems to come up the East Coast and produce wintry weather around the region.  There will also be a trough over the Gulf of Alaska and the Southeast US like in December. Overall these things tell me that January looks to be another month with below average temps. As cold as December was? Some models are indicating it, but I won't go that far quite yet. Some cold outbreaks that could rival those in December are possible. 

So, colder than average temperatures. What about snow? I think we will have our chances at some wintry precip. as we go into January, but not as many back-to-back as we had last year. I still think that ice is going to be one of our issues as we go through the rest of Winter. We have already had one ice "event". So, we only need one more to verify my forecast. I think we have a good chance at seeing at least one more 3"+ snow and at least one ice event that causes power outages, spotty at the least.

Well, I better get off of here, but that's my thoughts as of now. Still no video until Friday or Saturday, but I'll keep you up to date via posts. 

As always, Thanks for Viewing and God Bless You!

Recap of Christmas Storm and a Look Ahead

Just a Video Today...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-d1f0wZ0Vo

Winter Storm Warning Posted

I am soo glad I stuck with my guns on this system. Otherwise, instead of being prepared for the event, you would now be in a panic trying to figure out what to do(or at least some of you would be). Those of you who watch the main "weathermen" on television and don't give us small online forecasters the time of day, you may want to consider converting. I didn't see one station(News 14 laid all options on the table. They handled it best.) that stuck with their original forecast while me and numerous other small online forecasters did. I'm not "bragging", I'm just saying you should maybe consider paying us a little more attention. I understand that news stations have to play it safe and that's even more reason to watch us. We can give you the "behind the curtain" look that they can't. I hope that you won't take this the wrong way. I am not by any means trying to brag, just stating facts.

Now here's the video...
Warning...On my acc. map cut out that little west arm of the purple and shift or should I say expand the heavier a little east. Also, I want to stress this is a GENERAL map. Some areas will see more some less.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6DQBQkBXwM

Still Holding Strong With my Forecast...

Here's the video...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GmiD5jOjYU

Have a very MERRY CHRISTMAS!!! May God be with you through the night!

Sticking with My Guns...

Despite the model mayhem and decrease in snow potential for western NC, I am sticking with my 2-4" forecast. Models are known for showing a storm then bringing it too far east and then correcting back to the west. I think this storm will be no exception to that. I think we see the storm come back 100 or so miles to the west of what models are currently indicating. My reasoning for this is the current radar and model forecast differences. The 50/50 low over the Atlantic, the three part phasing issue, and the storm pushing onto the West coast sending the ridge too far east are my three main concerns. I'm going out on a limb here and I will eat my words and accept any ridicule on Sunday if necessary.

Thanks for viewing and God Bless You!

Update on the White Christmas

No Post Tonight...Here's the video. Sorry it's long, but I will try to cut it back to under 8 min. starting tomorrow morning.

Thanks for viewing and God Bless You!

Potential for a White Christmas in NC are growing!

Here's the video...

Last night's run of the GFS finally trended south. That's good news. I know that some of you who follow the models are sitting there thinking to yourself..."but the system is too far south and that's not good at all" Don't take one run of a model and stick to it. Look for a trend. Past two runs of GFS are south. GFS is phasing wrong and keeps the system to weak. I don't care how much snow it's showing "verbatim" or how deep the low pressure is, because the track is what I was looking for to boost my confidence.

00z UKMET is almost a carbon copy of the Euro at hrs. 60 and 72. Then it goes to far south and  too far off the coast for hardly any snow in the western Carolinas. UKMET should correct itself soon. It is also only reliable out to 3 days or so.

Last night's run of the Canadian was discouraging for snow fans west of the coastal plains region. It was a glitch in my opinion. The problem was that it did not phase the two branches correctly and also didn't close off the low. This was a shock for me, because the Canadian was my favored model. Now I am leaning towards the Euro, but not as extreme.

Euro has been consistent with bringing a snowstorm that would be talked about for the rest of most of our lives. Euro is also consistently wetter with each model run. I don't think that we're going to see two feet of snow in Raleigh. Anything's possible, but let's be realistic here.  I favor the Euro because of the consistency, phasing times, and storm track. I think it's got a pretty good grip on what could happen.

So my thoughts AS OF NOW include an ALL SNOW forecast for I-40 corridor north with accumulations of 3-7" likely. Further South, 2-6" with a little rain mixed in at the onset. THIS IS A VERY EARLY CALL AND THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.


Warning! Many things could go wrong so just hang in there and keep checking back for updates.

Models will really start to lock in once we get the system onshore in CA by tonight or early tomorrow morning.


Thanks for viewing and God Bless You!

Update on the White Christmas

Here's the video...

Chances for a White Christmas are on the Increase!

Included in the video is White Christmas history for Iredell County, model outputs, and potential storm tracks.

Here's the video...

Had mostly cloudy skies with flurries flying and sleet bouncing around last night in some areas. The down side was that the clouds blocked the lunar eclipse.

All eyes are on the Christmas Day Storm. GFS still has the low pressure system too far North to produce significant snow accumulations of snow. UKMET is now too far South to produce significant accumulations of snow. Euro and Canadian are in pretty good agreement that the storm takes a track that is just about the closest to perfect you can get for snow in Western NC. Phasing times is one of the big issues with this storm. If the phasing happens to early then the GFS could be the right solution, but if the phasing occurs later on the Euro/Canadian could play out. I do think that we will see some flakes flying Christmas day, but the amount of snow will be determined by the track.Time will tell. Tomorrow will be the day we can really start to lock onto what this system's going to do. Chilly temps settle in after the storm clears the region.

Continue to check back here for the latest updates on this potential winter storm.

Thanks for viewing, have a Great Day, and God Bless You!

11:21 A.M. Monday

12z run of the GFS is trying to trend towards the other models with a further south track. Still rain mostly, but the trend is what to look for, not specifics.  We will see.

Are You Dreaming of a White Christmas??

WARNING!!! BEFORE WATCHING THIS VIDEO REMEMBER THAT WE ARE STILL 5 DAYS OUT FROM THE POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS STORM. MANY THINGS CAN/WILL CHANGE.

Here's the latest...

You should really consider watching the video, because I give 100x more info in the video as I do in the blog. 

All models that I can access point to a major snowstorm for western NC on Christmas Day. The Operational GFS is the one exception to this. However, the GFS ensembles showed the storm. Watch the video for details, but all of the on-board models show a low tracking through SC and up the NC coast. Phasing of different branches is going to be an issue with this storm. Where and when is the key. We shall see. Still 5 days out.

Thanks for viewing and God Bless You!!

Just Some Thoughts

Video...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9_ZaZgXLnc

Whelp...

Outside of a few flurries around. I don't foresee any accumulation for West Iredell. My attention now turns to a clipper on Tuesday and what could be a pretty nasty ice storm Christmas day.

Morning Update

Click for video...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LC3v8rOk-8

Very Early Morning Update on Today's Storm

Video...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZfS_j6sZZz4

Radar returns looks impressive this morning. The modeling is pretty much out the window at this time. Time to look at strictly radar(other than temps). Radar has me more positive. I think we, in West Iredell, could see an inch or so if radar verifies. It will be rain/snow before noon and then rain until temps drop low enough to change what is left of the moisture to snow. This should occur by 7 or so. Still seeing if the system will over perform to remind us to not always trust the modeling. Maybe the old wives tales are what to trust....

Thanks for viewing and God Bless You!

Update for Tomorrow

Link to Video...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ip9hSIuIzH4

Some people are still looking at strictly model data for tomorrow's storm. It's time to start comparing models with radar and that's what I do in the video. Take a look. Moisture developing in Alabama and parts of Miss. Still moisture around AK and TN. None of that's indicated in the modeling.....
Just a side note...sunset was red and halo around moon. Old wives tale to forecast snow!

Weekend Storm

Here's the video...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZATqRVPNL0

Weekend...

I have the hammer in hand and the nails in my pocket ready to nail the coffin shut on tomorrow's storm. I'll wait 'till tomorrow to make a final call. Regardless, I don't think it's a big deal. Next Clipper Tuesday could bring some light snow. Christmas day storm looks pretty impressive as of today. Will it verify? Who knows...it's a week out. We have these three chances and maybe one after Christmas and then....view The Rest of Winter in a Nutshell

The Rest of Winter in a Nutshell

Recap and Long Term...
My forecast for a colder than average December with a quick start to winter is going to verify unless we have a week of record highs at the end of the month(highly doubt that). My forecast for an above average January and February are likely going to verify as well.

Arctic Oscillation trends neutral by the end of the month taking the cold air with it. Looks to warm up into January. I am going to say that I think that we have already seen the worst cold of this winter(next couple weeks will be chilly) even though we're still technically in Fall. We will still have our shots of cold air as we head into the new year, but they should be short lived. The question is can we get that cold air to time right with some precip.

We've had three rounds of wintry precip already this "winter" and I think we will see a couple more rounds in Jan. and Feb. Just not as many back to back. As we go into Jan. and Feb. my concern transitions from snowy threats to icy threats. I know most don't like ice, but with more shallow shots of cold air opposed to prolonged dense cold air, the threat for ice goes up. This is a prime example of being careful what you ask for. Warmer temperatures can actually lead to worse conditions than if we had colder temperatures. I'm sticking with my original forecast for 3-4 icy events this winter with one major event possible. P.S. we've already seen one icy event. Reach back into the darkest parts of your memory. Got it? yes, the one yesterday is the one I'm talking about. Time will tell, but the snowiest part of winter could be over before the new year even begins.

On that note. Thank you for viewing and God Bless You!

North Carolinian Weather Video 12-17-10

Here's the Video....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JULzYlDOs50

Weekend....
This storm looks to be East of I-85. Accumulation map in video. Still time for that to change though. We'll see how the storm looks as it gets into the gulf.

Clippers....
A clipper could bring us some wintry precip. Tuesday and actually even on Christmas. Verdict still out on these.

Thanks for viewing! Video has many more details. God Bless You!

Update on the Weekend Snowstorm

Video....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsQIjD9o-MM

Not feeling the, as Jeff Crum would say, snowy love with this system. Modeling really just handling the system HORRIBLY. Phasing issues, data ingestion problems. Very diverse solutions in the modeling. Hopefully I'll have a little better grasp on this system in the morning. However, it may be early Saturday morning before a real good forecast is issued. Track is key with this system. 50 miles either way in the track could turn the forecast into sunny skies or snowmageddon! WAY early acc. maps for different model solutions maybe in the morning.

Weekend Snowstorm for NC??

Here's the video...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amlAON2hdzs'

My apologies. I think the EURO I showed in the video was last night's run. Newest run shows more precip around our region. Also, I meant to mention this, but we may be looking at more snowy weather possibly Tuesday and then, yes, on Christmas Day! More later on...

Weekend Storm

We are in the very crucial hours of seeing if modeling trends back NW. If they don't show it back on shore by tomorrow morning, I am going to pretty much rule it out. Video in about 2 hours.

Early Reports

Just woke up at about 3:35 AM and my road and everything else is covered with snow/sleet. Haven't had a chance to check the main roads. Downtown Statesville has some snowy parallel parking spots and some patches in the intersection. Pockets of Light freezing drizzle/rain continue through about 10AM.

Tonight's Event

Click for Video...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuZKKJPM190

View video. It's relatively short. Precip moving in overnight. A few hours of snow before transitioning to ice. Rain by 11 AM. Up to an inch of snow accumulation and a glaze of ice for Statesville. More in the way of Acc.'s further north. Somebody in NC could get 4" or so out of this(NC/VA Border). Roads will be slick in the morning, especially back roads. Two or Three Hour Delay for I-SS is what I'm predicting. We'll see..

More on the weekend storm tomorrow, but a lot of the TV stations will tell you "It's starting to fizzle out" or "Don't be to concerned with it"...take that advice with caution. I mean they could be right, but I am still forecasting a swath of snow 4-8" somewhere in NC. Could it be us...Well let's get tonight/tomorrow's storm out of the way first.

Real Quick Update on Thursday's and Sunday's Winter Events

Click for video...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3WfiusTiak

Thursday...
Read post below...Same general info. Watch video for maps and more info. You heard right, I did say I-SS might operate on a delay. That's my prediction. Final call tonight.

Saturday..
Latest runs of GFS lessens the precip. and doesn't have it as inland as yesterday. I think this is just a trend in the modeling and it will be back to the coast hugging solution by Friday. Euro had a little more precip. over us. New Accumulation map in the video. As for now...Cross your fingers, pray, and wait and see.

New video tonight.
Thanks for watching and God Bless You!

Update on Thursday's and this Weekend's Winter Events

Video....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WFnX6zh7-0

Thursday...
As of  9:07 PM...Snow showers in the early morning hours very briefly before changing to freezing rain/sleet. Several hours of spotty freezing rain possible. Should transition to rain by 10 AM(later the farther North and East you go). Early call......I think Iredell-Statesville Schools COULD operate on a delay Thursday. Keyword..You guessed it! "COULD" I will make my final "delay" call in the morning. My issue with a delay is that there just isn't much precip. with this system...The weekend could, however, be different...

Weekend...
Still 4 days out, but GFS has showed a strong storm moving in on Saturday and exiting Sunday. Video has many more details! Yesterday GFS was about the only model showing this. Today, a couple models are trying to trend West and agree with the GFS. Definitely no consensus in the modeling yet, but the snowy solution is out there. I personally think that we will see snow this weekend (real early call)! How much is the question...closer to shore track(which I'm leaning towards. I explain my reasoning for this in the video.)would bring us up to 8" here in Statesville. Off shore...only a dusting or so. Time will tell...

New Video by 6 AM tomorrow! My alarm clock is set for 3:30(I'm dreading it for sure) 


Thanks for viewing and God Bless You!

Thursday's Storm

Sorry, no "North Carolinian Weather Video" today, just a video about Thursday's storm. 

Click HERE for video

Today..
Sunny with a high around 30. Low tonight looks to be in the lower teens.

Tomorrow...
Clouds on the increase with highs around 35.


Thursday's Storm...
AS OF NOW... Looks like snow starts tomorrow evening and continues into the overnight eventually transitioning to sleet/freezing rain. Should be either done or only rain by noon Thursday. High of 36. Video has much more.

This Weekend...
More on that tonight. Modeling all over the place. However, GFS, the snowier model, has been really consistent with a storm coming through Saturday Night and Sunday. We'll see...

Thanks for viewing and God Bless!

Update on Thursday's and Sunday's Winter Events

Click for video...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnKjncZbz5w

*side note: 0z NAM just came in..further South with precip.

Dangerous Wind Chills tonight possibly below 0*F so bundle up if going out! Lows around 14 wouldn't be shocked if some areas get to the single digits.

North Carolinian Weather Video 12-13-10

Click for video....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCeoGoAAmQI

(might not be available until 11AM or so...)

Today...
Few flurries flying around depending on where you're standing. High around frrrreezing(did you get it? "frrrr") Lows in the lower teens tonight with clear skies.

Tomorrow...
Much of the same except no flakes flying around.

Wednesday&Thursday...
Highs in the mid 30s on Wednesday with increasing cloudiness. Precip. moving in overnight Wednesday. What kind of precip.? As of now, I think it will start as some snow and transition to sleet/freezing rain and by noon or so be all rain...time will tell...precip amounts will be low with this system....

This Weekend...
Some modeling showing a pretty large storm moving through the region that could bring us some wintry precip...will it verify??

Thanks for viewing and have a Great day and God Bless You!!

Today's Snow

Click for video..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgMQHPif-k0

Snowfall in Western NC

Still snowing in West Iredell with a coating on the ground. Sticking with my original forecast of a dusting with isolated 1" zones. Roads will deteriorate rapidly as cold air rushes in. Winds will try to blow the roads dry, but icy spots are likely.

North Carolinian Weather Video 12-11-10

Click for video...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZvnPoUkkAI

Post Later Today!

Sorry I haven't been able to post like I said I would. New video and post with my thoughts on this system and systems to come will be up by tonight. The first week of December was the coldest on record!
 Have a great day and God Bless You!

Quick Hit!

The next 3 weeks are just LOADED with wintry weather potential! New video outlining ALL possible "events" by 8!

North Carolinian Weather Video 12-10-10

Click for video!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sn_RRZQr_G4

Update on this Weekend's System

Modeling still confused with what's going to play out. Some new, more interesting solutions showing up...

Click for Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWw1k8Gw6JQ

North Carolinian Weather Video 12-9-10

Click For Video...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AspV76V6ttI

Today...
Sunny. Highs around 40. Lows in the 20s tonight.

Short Term...
Highs Friday in the mid 40s with sunny skies. Saturday clouds on the increase...Highs upper 40s.

Snow??
Modeling still not agreeing on a track...the secondary low development is the more favored solution by the modeling which would give us rain with snow mixing in and eventually ending as pure snow.. My thoughts as of now are...Sunday is cloudy with rain most of the day with a few flakes mixed in. I think there's a good chance we end as all snow for a short time. Remember, this is PRELIMINARY! Modeling still confused.

Next Week...
Highs in the 20's a couple days with lows in the low teens. Possible system moving in by Thursday could be interesting...

Thanks for viewing and God Bless You!!

Don't Count the East Out on the Snow Quite Yet!

Click for Video...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XBwDiFKKJM

Today...
Little warmer with highs in the mid-upper 30's! Clouds around. Lows in the 20s tonight.

Short Term...
Highs in the low 40's with sunny skies tomorrow. Lows in the 20's with partly cloudy skies tomorrow night. "Warmer" air moves in by Friday with highs approaching 50.

Weekend...
Saturday looks primarily dry with clouds moving in. Highs low 50's. Then the big Question.......

Snowstorm??
View video for more details, but the East(including us) isn't out of the woods quite yet!! Few models trying to trend East!

Thanks for viewing and God Bless You!!!

East Coast Snowstorm Update 12-7-2010

Click link for Video!!...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGZMwTbtpz0

Weather Video 12-7-10 "East Coast Snow?"

Click for video...
North Carolinian Weather Video 12-7-2010


Today...
COLD! Highs will just barely get above freezing in Statesville with 33 as the predicted high. Clouds around this morning will depart by afternoon to allow for another clear and cold night tonight. Lows back into the teens.

Short Term..
Temps moderate a bit with highs in the upper 30's with a few clouds around tomorrow. Warmer by the end of the week and weekend with highs in the 40's.

What about that snowstorm??
Doesn't look like this storm will be the big one for Statesville...as of now. I can't stress enough IT'S STILL 6 DAYS OUT!! Things will change! For the worse or for the better? That remains the question....I'll keep you posted! Couple more opportunities after this one...

Warm-up?
No warm-up until around Christmas time it looks like(Next week looks colder than this week)...Hang in there! January will come(hint, hint)!

That's it for now...Have a WONDERFUL day and God Bless You!!

Click for video....
East Coast Snowstorm???

First Edition of North Carolinian Weather Video!

Today...
Today will be a mainly sunny day with a few clouds moving in by afternoon. NW flow event continues in the mountains. Highest elevation could pick up 2-4" by tonight. Highs around Statesville will only make it to the upper 30's!!! Lows tonight will dip down in the teens provided the wind is calm!

This Week...
Lows in the teens and highs in the 30's for most of the week with sunny skies! Moderation in temps happen by Friday with Highs back into the upper 40's and lows in the upper 20's to lower 30's.

Snowstorm??
I wouldn't say that quite yet, but there is a storm that is going to move through the region this weekend into early next week that, depending on the track, could bring us some wintry precip.! Still ironing out the details on that one.

When's it going to warm up??
In short...no time soon. After the "snowstorm" moves out, cold air, much like we're experiencing now, will filter into the region to make for another cold week next week.

Watch the video for more details!
Thanks for viewing, have a Great Day, and may God be with you and yours through the days to come!