Potential for a White Christmas in NC are growing!

Here's the video...

Last night's run of the GFS finally trended south. That's good news. I know that some of you who follow the models are sitting there thinking to yourself..."but the system is too far south and that's not good at all" Don't take one run of a model and stick to it. Look for a trend. Past two runs of GFS are south. GFS is phasing wrong and keeps the system to weak. I don't care how much snow it's showing "verbatim" or how deep the low pressure is, because the track is what I was looking for to boost my confidence.

00z UKMET is almost a carbon copy of the Euro at hrs. 60 and 72. Then it goes to far south and  too far off the coast for hardly any snow in the western Carolinas. UKMET should correct itself soon. It is also only reliable out to 3 days or so.

Last night's run of the Canadian was discouraging for snow fans west of the coastal plains region. It was a glitch in my opinion. The problem was that it did not phase the two branches correctly and also didn't close off the low. This was a shock for me, because the Canadian was my favored model. Now I am leaning towards the Euro, but not as extreme.

Euro has been consistent with bringing a snowstorm that would be talked about for the rest of most of our lives. Euro is also consistently wetter with each model run. I don't think that we're going to see two feet of snow in Raleigh. Anything's possible, but let's be realistic here.  I favor the Euro because of the consistency, phasing times, and storm track. I think it's got a pretty good grip on what could happen.

So my thoughts AS OF NOW include an ALL SNOW forecast for I-40 corridor north with accumulations of 3-7" likely. Further South, 2-6" with a little rain mixed in at the onset. THIS IS A VERY EARLY CALL AND THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.


Warning! Many things could go wrong so just hang in there and keep checking back for updates.

Models will really start to lock in once we get the system onshore in CA by tonight or early tomorrow morning.


Thanks for viewing and God Bless You!