My forecast for a colder than average December with a quick start to winter is going to verify unless we have a week of record highs at the end of the month(highly doubt that). My forecast for an above average January and February are likely going to verify as well.
Arctic Oscillation trends neutral by the end of the month taking the cold air with it. Looks to warm up into January. I am going to say that I think that we have already seen the worst cold of this winter(next couple weeks will be chilly) even though we're still technically in Fall. We will still have our shots of cold air as we head into the new year, but they should be short lived. The question is can we get that cold air to time right with some precip.
We've had three rounds of wintry precip already this "winter" and I think we will see a couple more rounds in Jan. and Feb. Just not as many back to back. As we go into Jan. and Feb. my concern transitions from snowy threats to icy threats. I know most don't like ice, but with more shallow shots of cold air opposed to prolonged dense cold air, the threat for ice goes up. This is a prime example of being careful what you ask for. Warmer temperatures can actually lead to worse conditions than if we had colder temperatures. I'm sticking with my original forecast for 3-4 icy events this winter with one major event possible. P.S. we've already seen one icy event. Reach back into the darkest parts of your memory. Got it? yes, the one yesterday is the one I'm talking about. Time will tell, but the snowiest part of winter could be over before the new year even begins.
On that note. Thank you for viewing and God Bless You!
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