Winter Forecast 2011-2012

After several weeks of research the winter outlook is complete.  Due to work and school, I have not had as much time as I would have liked to have had to work on this forecast.  However, I am fairly confident in my forecast and think that this is how the winter should unfold.  I am excited to get this winter started and start publishing "short-term" forecasts for storms affecting our region.

I thank you for watching and hope you have a wonderful day! God bless you!

Wintry Weather Possible for the Foothills and Mountains Tomorrow Night

Last day of Warmth
A cold front will push through the region overnight and tomorrow and cause temperatures to plummet.  Highs tomorrow for many Piedmont areas will not reach the low 50's.  Lows Friday night will be a little warmer as the clouds will act as a blanket to us.  However, our first sub-freezing temperature of the year is likely to occur Saturday Night.

Snow Chances for Tomorrow Night
I figured I would let you know that some forecast models are indicating the chance at some wintry precip. in a few NC counties.  It looks like the snow would mix in sometime tomorrow evening and tomorrow night if it does indeed happen.  The counties that have the best chance at this novelty are Ashe, Watauga, Alleghany, Surry, Wilkes, and Yadkin.  This is the first time this season that wintry weather has threatened areas outside the mountains and remember, it is only the 27th of October.  There are many more weeks of wintry fun ahead.

Winter Forecast
I am currently working on my winter forecast and should have it ready by Friday afternoon.  My analog years for this forecast are 50-51, 55-56, 71-72, 74-75, 75-76, 82-83, 99-00, 00-01, and 08-09.

Interesting to See This Early in the Season

Taken verbatim this particular run(18z GFS) puts down 2-5" of snow in Western NC. Not going to happen, but interesting to see.

Winter Is Over...Not So Fast!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kx4qoJ7tRgA

My Gut Tells Me Otherwise....

I'm hesitant to type this, because I more than likely will get burned with this forecast. My gut has been telling me since Sunday that this was going to be a little bigger than expected. I've not had too much time to analyze data and track radar this morning, but what I did notice is that, from what I saw, this storm is tracking a little farther North that expected and is a tad bit stronger. We'll see. I'll try to do an afternoon post, but until then...Have a great day and God Bless You!!

Thursday Snow?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEuvYvybVnQ

Update on This Upcoming Week's Snow Potential

I'll try to cut a video Monday morning if hope is still alive for the storm. Cross your fingers. Typical of this time period, GFS has backed off the snow potential considerably. It still has snow, but very light. The Euro has hopped on board with the wintry scenario with the 12z run and 00z run. The past runs of the Euro have trended eastward towards the original GFS solution. That's good. Let's hope the trend holds. I've said countless times this winter that the GFS is the model of choice from 6-14 days, then the Euro from 2-5 days, and then it's kind of wait and see with all the models. Hopefully, we'll have better agreement between the models by early next week. However, with this winter's track record, it's likely that we don't see agreement until Tuesday night or Wednesday. I want to note that all models (GFS, Euro, and Canadian) point to some light snow Monday night. Looks to be only a dusting, if that, but it's something to keep an eye on. Long-lead indicators point to a warm-up after Valentine's Day, so this may be our last chance at wintry precip. this winter, unless something pops up late month or early march.

Updates throughout the week. Thanks for reading, have a good day, and God Bless You!!